Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.754875 3.790672 5.277332 7.648409 1.149984e+01 17.834089 29.819070
2025-03-16 1.774923 2.811711 4.611919 8.242133 1.620517e+01 35.466605 97.963810
2025-03-23 1.266045 2.249188 4.255811 9.281512 2.430310e+01 81.964564 509.622405
2025-03-30 0.930584 1.817440 3.896987 10.264446 3.649338e+01 215.324251 6465.592274
2025-04-06 0.658575 1.375564 3.236602 9.904544 4.620500e+01 503.888609 593323.667327
2025-04-13 0.471537 1.036057 2.621004 9.074392 5.414312e+01 1182.264719 NaN
2025-04-20 0.375359 0.874168 2.410206 9.739090 8.182094e+01 6689.732588 NaN
2025-04-27 0.316519 0.783074 2.368669 11.424760 1.504013e+02 317780.351311 NaN
2025-05-04 0.272603 0.713844 2.363299 13.705296 3.131634e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.229893 0.628450 2.232665 15.087382 5.943118e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.187465 0.525666 1.948893 14.506092 8.505993e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.152042 0.433259 1.650883 13.097346 1.027554e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.131938 0.389343 1.575949 14.467514 2.468436e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.114565 0.348364 1.486786 15.609385 6.590657e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.101843 0.319899 1.447697 17.762938 3.183809e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.090618 0.292822 1.396176 19.823844 3.089634e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.077861 0.254751 1.243235 18.882510 1.503370e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.066468 0.218783 1.079822 16.954774 4.238904e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059981 0.201602 1.035325 18.325680 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.055785 0.192865 1.045961 21.999174 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.052328 0.186178 1.068438 27.158910 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.048151 0.174644 1.041676 30.337775 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.043054 0.157106 0.948666 28.888624 NaN NaN NaN